Consumer Confidence
A survey-based measure of households' optimism about the economy — a leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives ~70% of U.S. GDP.
Consumer confidence indexes (the Conference Board and University of Michigan are the main U.S. measures) survey households about current and expected economic conditions. Since consumer spending represents roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, confidence is a forward-looking proxy for spending intention.
A sharp drop in confidence — even before hard data weakens — can be a leading indicator of a slowdown. Retailers, automakers, and discretionary consumer stocks are particularly sensitive. Central banks also track confidence as a soft input for their economic outlook.