Retail Sales
Monthly measure of consumer spending at the register — a direct read on whether households are putting their money to work.
Retail sales is a monthly U.S. data release tracking the total receipts at retail stores. It is one of the most direct, timely measures of consumer spending and a key input into the GDP calculation.
Strong retail sales signal healthy consumer demand, often supportive of hawkish policy. Weak sales suggest demand is cracking, raising recession risk and dovish pivot expectations. The "core" retail sales figure (ex-autos, ex-gas) is watched closely as it strips out volatile components to show the underlying trend.
On the desk
A -0.8% retail sales print during a period when the Fed was already pausing its hike cycle triggered a sharp rally in Treasuries and a move into defensive equities as traders priced in earlier rate cuts.