Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Tracks changes in the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services — the most closely watched inflation gauge.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a monthly statistical measure that tracks price changes for a representative basket of goods and services — food, energy, housing, apparel, medical care, and more. It is the most market-moving inflation data point in the U.S. calendar.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is what the Fed watches most carefully because volatile energy prices can distort the underlying trend. A hotter-than-expected CPI print pushes rate-hike expectations forward, sends bond yields up, and typically pressures equities and growth assets.
On the desk
When U.S. CPI came in at 0.5% month-on-month vs. an expected 0.2% in early 2023, two-year Treasury yields jumped 15 basis points in minutes, the dollar index spiked, and tech stocks opened sharply lower.