Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Monthly count of new U.S. jobs added outside the farm sector — the most volatility-generating data release on the macro calendar.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics release measuring the net change in U.S. payroll employment. It includes government and nonprofit-sector jobs, and excludes farm/agricultural workers, private household employees, the self-employed and unincorporated proprietors, unpaid family workers, and active-duty military. It is released on the first Friday of every month and consistently triggers the largest short-term volatility spikes in forex, rates, and equities.
A blowout number tightens rate-cut expectations, strengthens the dollar, and lifts Treasury yields. A miss does the opposite. Traders also watch the accompanying average hourly earnings figure — wage growth above trend is inflationary and can override a weak headline number.
On the desk
When NFP printed +353K vs. +185K expected in January 2024, EUR/USD dropped 70 pips instantly, two-year yields rose 18 bps, and rate-cut bets for March were almost entirely priced out within the hour.