Yield Curve
A graph of Treasury yields across all maturities — from 3 months to 30 years — that maps the term structure of interest rates at a given moment.
The yield curve plots the yields of U.S. Treasury securities from the shortest (3-month T-Bill) to the longest (30-year T-Bond) maturity. Under normal conditions the curve slopes upward — investors demand higher yields for lending money longer because of inflation and uncertainty risk over time.
The shape of the curve is one of the most powerful macro signals available. A steep curve suggests growth expectations and accommodative Fed policy. A flat curve signals uncertainty. An inverted curve — where short yields exceed long yields — has preceded every U.S. recession in the last 50+ years.
For risk asset traders, the yield curve is not just an academic chart — it tells you where economic momentum is headed and how tight financial conditions really are.