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Rates & Bondsintermediate
HAWKISH
CENTRAL BANK
CME FEDWATCH
DOVISH
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

Hawkish

A monetary policy stance favouring higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions to combat inflation — the opposite of dovish.

A hawkish Fed or central banker prioritises fighting inflation over supporting growth. Hawks believe rates should be higher — or at least not cut — because inflation remains a threat or economic conditions are too hot.

Hawkish rhetoric from the Fed typically causes bond yields to rise (selling pressure as markets price in higher rates for longer) and risk assets to fall (higher discount rates compress equity valuations; tighter credit conditions increase default risk).

Reading the tone of Fed communications as hawkish or dovish — and anticipating shifts in tone — is one of the most actionable skills in macro trading. A single hawkish phrase in a Fed statement can move the 2-year Treasury by 10+ basis points.

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