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RISK OF RUIN
BLACK SWAN
CAPITAL PRESERVATION
DRAWDOWN
EXPECTANCY

Risk of Ruin

The statistical probability that a trader will lose enough capital to be forced out of trading entirely, given their edge and risk per trade.

Formula
Risk of Ruin ≈ ((1 − Edge) / (1 + Edge))^N  [simplified; Edge = Win Rate − Loss Rate]

Risk of ruin answers: "Given my win rate, R:R, and position sizing, what are the odds I eventually go broke?" It is the ultimate constraint on risk parameters — even a positive-expectancy system can have a non-zero risk of ruin if position sizes are too large.

Risk of ruin falls rapidly as position size decreases, and rises sharply as risk per trade increases. A system risking 1% per trade with positive expectancy typically has a near-zero risk of ruin; the same system at 10% per trade may have meaningful ruin probability.

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